Monday, June 05, 2006

Naming Names

"Authoritative List of Core, New Core, and Gap countries," by Thomas Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog, 16 April 2006, http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/003162.html.

Before Redefining the Gap, and then Synthesizing that with Barnett's own theory, I asked if there was a list of countries in the Core and the Gap

Tom responded:

Did once, but strictly by old-line and just Core-Gap.

Of course, the concept is meant to be dynamic and open to interpretation, not dogma.

So only thing that interests me is how breakdown pushes you to contemplate the how and why of shrinking the Gap.

Once you accept that challenge, you can do no serious wrong in my eyes.

And you can quote me on that.


Still, I was curious, and the data for my interpretation of his Core-Gap division, as well as the AfroIslamic Gap, is available as a computer file from this blog. A more human readable version of the Old Core, New Core, Gap division, plus the Synthesized division, is below.

I realize some of the divisions between the Old Core and New Core are arbitrary. There's no authoritative list, so I did the best I could. Don't like them? Then create your own list, or add your comments below.

Read more ...

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Synthesizing the Gap: Convergent Thinking and Mapping Our World

In my study, Redefining the Gap, I contrasted Tom Barnett's model of an Old Core - New Core - Gap model with a rival world of an AfroIslamic - Not-AfroIslamic, and found my alternative to be generally better. However, with ZenPundit and Enterprise Resilience Blog talking about horizontal thinking, I decided to apply something similar to my Redefinition of the Gap. The results are here, and discussion is below the fold:

NationBrutalNastyPoorSolitaryShortIV
OCNCG-0.1640.4690.7330.64410.430.655
AfroIslam0.0490.5950.3370.31420.630.667
SyntheticTPMB-0.0890.6220.6760.59940.600.781
SyntheticXP-0.0920.6140.6750.60240.620.784
SyntheticBoth-0.0910.6190.6770.60230.610.785

Best=Green; Good=Blue; Fair=Yellow; Acceptable=White; Worst=Red

Read more ...

Sunday, May 21, 2006

Redefining the Gap, a tdaxp Press Release

May 22 (BEIJING) - Dan of tdaxp, a top-500 blogger, today announced the complete release of his noted web series, Redefining the Gap. Redefining the Gap is an innovative contribution to grand strategic analysis, combining the superb vision of New York Times best-selling author Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett with the power of hard numbers. Redefining the Gap, originally written for a graduate course in political science, was expanded and re-edited for the Internet. Redefining the Gap sheds new light Barnettian concepts, such as the "Functioning Core" and "Non-Integrating Gap," as well as ideas such as Thomas Hobbes' description of natural life as "nasty, brutish, and short."

"Basically," Dan remarked, "I took the description of 'the Gap' from The Pentagon's New Map, and applied simple statistical methods to see whether it worked or not." However, the analysis did not end there. "I was not content to see whether or not the model was good, but I wanted to see if it was actually better than existing models. So I used alternate and rival definitions of the Gap, from sources such as the United Nations, the Central Intelligence Agency, and others." Surprisingly, the main finding of Redefining the Gap was a politically sensitive criticism of Barnett's model. "If you merely define The Gap as nations that are either African or Islamic, the numbers say life in those nations is nastier, more brutish, and shorter than Barnett's broader definition." As Dan wrote in his prologue, "We are at war with Africa and Islam ... We are at war for Africa and Islam."

Redefining the Gap has already attracted interest throughout the blogosphere. "Of course, I was humbled when Dr. Barnett took interest in the project, even before completion," remarked Dan. "Yet equally humbling were comments and contributions by readers and fellow bloggers. I am delighted and honored by the response Redefining the Gap has received from the blogosphere."

On his accomplishment, Dan was philosophical. "I finished publishing Redefining the Gap the same day I visited a physically and spiritually abused cathedral, confiscated by the Communist Party decades ago. Every day during my visit to the capital of China, I am remanding what a disaster 'shrinking the Core' can be. A series of bad decisions led to the collapse of what Tom calls "Globalization I," and the worst genocides and outrages of human history. A firm knowledge of what the Gap, and the Core, really are can help prevent a repeat."

Redefining the Gap was published in 14 parts. It includes its original introduction and conclusion, as well as new prologue and results sections that are exclusive to electronic media. Redefining the Gap's literature review section covers geopolitics, early geopolitical theories, the Global South hypothesis, critical geopolitics, and Dr. Barnett's PNM Theory. The report also includes a research design as well as a section on methods and operationalizations. The series concludes with an extensive bibliography, the computer logic used in the research, and the resulting scaled data.

Redefining the Gap is part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06, a series of series that will continue as Dan reports from the People's Republic of China. Future installments include an overview of constructivist teaching methods including an interview with noted historical and educator Mark Safranski, an exploration of variations of USAF Colonel John Boyd's "OODA" Loop, and an analysis of the popular web-log Creative Anarchy from the perspective of Creativity, Talent, and Expertise.

The tdaxp blog is available online at http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com.

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Redefining the Gap 14, Appendix: National Codes

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


The CSV output file. Boring, I know. But makes it easier to run your own tests if you disagree.

Read more ...

21:25 Posted in UNL / Scope & Methods | Permalink | Comments (0) | Tags: pnm, codes

Redefining the Gap 13, Appendix: Computer Code

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


Below is the perl code I used for data smoothing.

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Friday, May 19, 2006

Redefining the Gap 12, Bibliography

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


Below is the bibliography for this project. Many of the documents cited can be obtained from JSTOR.

Read more ...

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Redefining the Gap 11, Results

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


Nation Brutal Nasty Poor Sol. Short IV
OCNCG -0.16 0.47 0.73 0.64 0.43 0.65
CG -0.14 0.46 0.68 0.56 0.41 0.61
G77 -0.04 0.52 0.5 0.45 0.51 0.65
G2277 -0.09 0.48 0.47 0.42 0.51 0.61
AfroIslam 0.05 0.6 0.34 0.31 0.63 0.67
Nalign – 2 0.01 0.58 0.43 0.4 0.55 0.67
Nalign – 3 0.001 0.57 0.41 0.38 0.56 0.66
LDC – 2 -0.08 0.31 0.55 0.44 0.41 0.49
LDC – 3 -0.08 0.38 0.54 0.4 0.62 0.59
Worlds -0.14 0.42 0.7 0.59 0.48 0.64

Read more ...

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Redefining the Gap 10, Limitations and Conclusion

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md



Halford Mackinder said that “every century has its own geographical perspective,” and it may even be true that “every century has its own geographical stereotype” (Meinig 1956:553). Geopolitical analysis is necessarily limited to some conception of the world. This research design seeks to test a geopolitical view of the present world. It is not a test throughout time. It makes no claim to be. That makes this study no less valuable.

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Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Redefining the Gap 9, Methods and Operationalizations

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


Poverty will be measured by GDP per capita, measured by purchasing power parity (CIA 2006c). Estimates are recent, with most being from 2004 or 2005. The information is listed in US Dollars. My study will scale GDP per capita so that poorest value is 0 and the richest value is 1. For each state, it's value will be calculated by taking the difference between that state's value and the lowest state's value, divided by the difference between the highest state's value and the lowest state's value. The logic to read in and scale this data is included in the appendix, particularly in the function scaleData().

Read more ...

Monday, May 15, 2006

Redefining the Gap 8, The Research Design

Note: This is a selection from Redefining the Gap, part of tdaxp's SummerBlog '06

tdaxps_new_map_md


Yet in spite of the potential consequences of Barnett's work, little has been done to test it. For instance, do the measures he gives for the “Gap” actually correlate with being in the Gap? Does another accepted model work better?

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