tdaxp

"Iraqi Elections (VI): The Results and Their Implications," by Nimrod Raphaeli, MEMRI, http://memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Page=countries&Area=iraq&ID=IA20705, 16 February 2005 (from Iraq Election Discussions).

Finally, a breakdown of the Iraq Elections by seat

Note how close it is to IED's post-election projection, and laughably different from my pre-election guess.

The biggest consequence is that it allows a UIA-Kurdish majority to override the Basic Law at will. In other words, if the UIA and the Kurds hold together no constitutional ratification is necessary. From the Basic Law

This Law is the Supreme Law of the land and shall be binding in all parts of Iraq without exception. No amendment to this Law may be made except by a three-fourths majority of the members of the National Assembly and the unanimous approval of the Presidency Council. Likewise, no amendment may be made that could abridge in any way the rights of the Iraqi people cited in Chapter Two; extend the transitional period beyond the timeframe cited in this Law; delay the holding of elections to a new assembly; reduce the powers of the regions or governorates; or affect Islam, or any other religions or sects and their rites.

Combined, the UIA and the Kurds have 78% of all seats in the Transitional National Assembly.

If the UIA-Kurds hold together, this ends the need for Sunni approval of the Constitution.

The Sunni boycott is proving disasterous. The rejectionists can now only be defeated by Shia-Kurdish infighting.

"National Assembly Projection," by "Stephen," Iraq Election Discussions, http://iraqelect.com/index.php/archives/2005/02/08/national-assembly-projection/, 8 February 2005.

Iraqi ElectionsDiscussions projects the final outcome considerably better than mine.

Seats - Party/List
140 - United Iraqi Alliance (Shi’ite)
68 - Kurdish List
40 - The Iraqi List (PM Allawi)
3 - Natl Elites & Cadres (Moqtada al Sadr)
3 - People’s Union (Communist)
3 - Iraqis List (Pres. al-Yawer)
3 - IMIK (Islamist Kurdish)
15 - Other parties
275 - TOTAL SEATS

Visually,



(Chart courtesy of OpenOffice.org Calc)

Combined, this gives a UIA-Kurdish coalition nearly 76% of the votes in the TNA. Consider the Basic Law's three-fourths rule, where a Constitution can be created with 75% of the Assembly votes and no need of provincial approval, this could be a very powerful government. Of course, UIA is already a coalition and it's likely that at least some UIA Assemblymen are sympathetic to either Allawi or Sadr.

It is wonderful to see what the government of a free Iraq looks like. Long live democracy in the Greater Middle East!

"Religious Shiites claim Victory," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/religious-shiites-claim-victory-abdul.html, 2 February 2005.

Planet Iraq, destroyed by the leviathan meteor of the United States Military, reforms around its strongest centers of gravity.

Juan Cole gives preliminary election returns from Iraq

The UIA spokesmen are saying in some provinces they got 90 percent of the vote, and believe that they will gain about half the seats in the 275-member parliament, or 138. They would have needed two-thirds, or 182 seats, to dispense with any coalition partner inside parliament in forming the next government.

The Kurds believe that they actually did better than did the list of interim prime minister Iyad Allawi, and will garner about 65 seats, or nearly a quarter. Al-Hayat reported that interim Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd, even predicted that the Kurds would take as many as 75 seats. "This," he said, "is what we always wanted." The Kurds have long been marginalized in Iraqi politics.

This is the best possible outcome.

A Kurdish-UIA alliance would bring about 216 seats, giving it 78.5% of all seats. This is enough towrite a constitution without ratification by Sunni provinces. If the Kurds and UIA can agree on devolved status for Kurdistan, there is no reason they cannot ram through their reforms. The Kurds would vote for any UIA initiatives on Arab Iraq, while the UIA would support any Kurdish moves for autonomy.

If these election results hold and the Kurds and UIA ally as expected, it lays the foundation for a future worth creating. With Kurdish-UIA control of the Assembly..

1. Kurdistan becomes a liberal democracy in the Middle East, showing Turkish Kurds independence can be won in a democratic setting, giving Turkey another sane neighbor (after Georgia's Rose Revolution)
   
2. The Shia Sphere becomes home to internal political and theological debate, and exerts a gravitational pull to detatch the Eastern Province from Saudi Arabia
   
3. Making the Sunni Arab lands in Iraq the best model of how not to behave since Monty Python's How Not To Be Seen
   

May Shia Iraq give oppressed Arabs everywhere hope. May free Kurdistan pave the way for freedom and democracy. And may the Sunni lands be a warning to any who launch terrorist attacks upon a free Republic.