Tuesday, September 11, 2007

The Ethno-Sectarian Violence Maps of the Petraeus Report

Courtesy of Zen Pundit and the Small Wars Council, I was able to read the testimony and examine the presentation of the report that General Petraeus, of the Multinational Force - Iraq, gave to the Congress. The fifth slide is titled "Ethno-Sectarian" violence, and contains maps of Sunni v. Shia attacks on December 2006, February 2007, May 2007, and August 2007.


The Battle of Baghdad


What's strange about it is that the neighborhood map does not change. The detailed color-coded representation of Baghdad, with Green for majority Shia, blue for majority Sunni, and orange for mixed appears to be the same now as it was twenty months ago.


Detailed view


Everywhere, of course, one reads about the etnic cleansing of Baghdad. So what gives? I'm assuming that those who prepared the slides for Petraeus used the last available census information for generating the ethnic neighborhood maps, but alternatively (and less likely, in my opinion) the discussion of ongoing ethnic cleansing could be overblown.


A virtual Baghdad?


Finally, presuming the violence in Baghdad is leading to ethnically cleansed neighborhoods, it would be interesting to compare a real time-sequenced map of Baghdad with theoretical work on homogenization and inter-group tournaments that's now appearing in the academic literature.