tdaxp

"Shiite Iraq," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/shiite-iraq-al-hayat-muhammad-husain.html, 18 February 2005.

"Present Conflicts, Looming Conflicts ," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/present-conflicts-looming-conflicts.html, 19 February 2005.

"At Least 55 Dead, Over 100 Wounded In Ashura Bombings," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/at-least-55-dead-over-100-wounded-in.html, 20 February 2005.

"Chalabi Interviewed by Stephanopoulos," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/chalabi-interviewed-by-stephanopoulos.html, 20 February 2005.

Bearing in mind my previous criticisms, and my deference to Mark, some more incoherence from Dr. Cole:

Dr. Cole talks up the guerrilla war

Contrary to what Hilary Clinton said in Baghdad on Saturday, this series of huge explosions does not demonstrate that the guerrilla insurgency has failed or is weakening. Rather, the attacks demonstrate that the guerrilla war is still being waged fiercely.

Dr. Cole talks up the Sunni Arab boycott in Anbar province

In a startling development to which the Western press is paying little attention, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq has won the provincial governments in 8 of the 18 provinces in the country, including Baghdad. Over-all Shiite lists won 11 of the 18. Sadrists won Wasit and Maysam, and perhaps one other. Dawa doesn't appear to have run well at the provincial level. The Kurds won several of the northern provinces, including Ta'mim (where Kirkuk is) and Ninevah. The Iraqi Islamic Party won Anbar province, even though it withdrew from the elections. (It couldn't properly withdraw because the ballots had already been printed.) But only 2 percent of the residents of Anbar voted, so the IIP victory doesn't mean much.

Dr. Cole discusses the catastrophy that de-de-Ba'athification has been

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim accused Iraqi police of torturing and killing three members of the Shiite paramilitary, the Badr Corps, under mysterious circumstances, according to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat. Al-Hakim, the leader of the victorious United Iraqi Alliance, said that the deed was done by ex-Baathists who had been re-recruited into the police corps. The rehabilitation of Baathists under the interim Allawi administration is likely to produce many such conflicts now that the religious Shiites are in power.

All while Dr. Cole accuses Dr. Ahmad Chalabi of an irrational Sunni-Arabophobia

What all this tells me is that Ahmad Chalabi still has a highly vindictive, almost violent attitude toward the Sunni Arab community, many of whom were Baath Party members even though most were not guilty of actual crimes. I personally can't imagine a process through which Chalabi emerges as prime minister from the United Iraqi Alliance, or at least not a process that did not involve a lot of bribery. But if such a disaster occurred, it is obvious that he would throw the country into further chaos immediately.

My thoughts on this are best said by Tom Friedman, in an op-ed from before the election

That is probably true - but we are already in a civil war in Iraq. That civil war was started by the Sunni Baathists, and their Islamist fascist allies from around the region, the minute the U.S. toppled Saddam. And they started that war not because they felt the Iraqi elections were going to be rigged, but because they knew they weren't going to be rigged.

They started the war not to get their fair share of Iraqi power, but in hopes of retaining their unfair share. Under Saddam, Iraq's Sunni minority, with only 20 percent of the population, ruled everyone. These fascist insurgents have never given politics a chance to work in Iraq because they don't want it to work. That's why they have never issued a list of demands. They don't want people to see what they are really after, which is continued minority rule, Saddamism without Saddam. If that was my politics, I'd be wearing a ski mask over my head, too.