tdaxp

"Iraqi MPs approve partial cabinet," BBC News, 28 April 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4492457.stm (from Democratic Underground).

Remember this blog saying something about the Iraq-Iran alliance, and American efforts to create a Shia Gulf...

MPs in Iraq have approved a new government by a large majority despite failure to agree on several top posts.
...

Among the names on the new list is Shia politician Ahmed Chalabi, a one-time US favourite who fell from grace.

...

Mr Chalabi will also take one of the deputy prime minister's posts.

Chalabi is an Iranian agent and sometimes American agent. He is a Shia Iraqi patriot who knows his country benefits from connectivity with stronger powers. The Sunni Arab Nationalist offer disconnection and despair. Chalabi, Iran, and America offer Iraq a way congratulations.

Congratulations to the Iraqi people and to Minister Chalabi. It has been a long journey.

Update: Atrios, Martin Stabe, and BTC News completely miss the point.

Update 2: Juan Cole doesn't mention an Iran angle, but adds some sensible thoughts

I wonder if this appointment was a sop to the more secular-leaning members of the United Iraqi Alliance, who must have been extremely alarmed that the fundamentalist Fadila Party was making a bid for petroleum minister. It should be remembered that in contemporary Iraq, as in Jacksonian America, cabinet posts are sources of patronage and wealth, since there is a sort of spoils system. Chalabi will place his Iraqi National Congress members throughout the ministry.

Hmmm... bribery side-payments as a method of control... hmmm...

"Shiite Iraq," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/shiite-iraq-al-hayat-muhammad-husain.html, 18 February 2005.

"Present Conflicts, Looming Conflicts ," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/present-conflicts-looming-conflicts.html, 19 February 2005.

"At Least 55 Dead, Over 100 Wounded In Ashura Bombings," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/at-least-55-dead-over-100-wounded-in.html, 20 February 2005.

"Chalabi Interviewed by Stephanopoulos," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/chalabi-interviewed-by-stephanopoulos.html, 20 February 2005.

Bearing in mind my previous criticisms, and my deference to Mark, some more incoherence from Dr. Cole:

Dr. Cole talks up the guerrilla war

Contrary to what Hilary Clinton said in Baghdad on Saturday, this series of huge explosions does not demonstrate that the guerrilla insurgency has failed or is weakening. Rather, the attacks demonstrate that the guerrilla war is still being waged fiercely.

Dr. Cole talks up the Sunni Arab boycott in Anbar province

In a startling development to which the Western press is paying little attention, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq has won the provincial governments in 8 of the 18 provinces in the country, including Baghdad. Over-all Shiite lists won 11 of the 18. Sadrists won Wasit and Maysam, and perhaps one other. Dawa doesn't appear to have run well at the provincial level. The Kurds won several of the northern provinces, including Ta'mim (where Kirkuk is) and Ninevah. The Iraqi Islamic Party won Anbar province, even though it withdrew from the elections. (It couldn't properly withdraw because the ballots had already been printed.) But only 2 percent of the residents of Anbar voted, so the IIP victory doesn't mean much.

Dr. Cole discusses the catastrophy that de-de-Ba'athification has been

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim accused Iraqi police of torturing and killing three members of the Shiite paramilitary, the Badr Corps, under mysterious circumstances, according to Ash-Sharq al-Awsat. Al-Hakim, the leader of the victorious United Iraqi Alliance, said that the deed was done by ex-Baathists who had been re-recruited into the police corps. The rehabilitation of Baathists under the interim Allawi administration is likely to produce many such conflicts now that the religious Shiites are in power.

All while Dr. Cole accuses Dr. Ahmad Chalabi of an irrational Sunni-Arabophobia

What all this tells me is that Ahmad Chalabi still has a highly vindictive, almost violent attitude toward the Sunni Arab community, many of whom were Baath Party members even though most were not guilty of actual crimes. I personally can't imagine a process through which Chalabi emerges as prime minister from the United Iraqi Alliance, or at least not a process that did not involve a lot of bribery. But if such a disaster occurred, it is obvious that he would throw the country into further chaos immediately.

My thoughts on this are best said by Tom Friedman, in an op-ed from before the election

That is probably true - but we are already in a civil war in Iraq. That civil war was started by the Sunni Baathists, and their Islamist fascist allies from around the region, the minute the U.S. toppled Saddam. And they started that war not because they felt the Iraqi elections were going to be rigged, but because they knew they weren't going to be rigged.

They started the war not to get their fair share of Iraqi power, but in hopes of retaining their unfair share. Under Saddam, Iraq's Sunni minority, with only 20 percent of the population, ruled everyone. These fascist insurgents have never given politics a chance to work in Iraq because they don't want it to work. That's why they have never issued a list of demands. They don't want people to see what they are really after, which is continued minority rule, Saddamism without Saddam. If that was my politics, I'd be wearing a ski mask over my head, too.

"Al-Yawir on the Chalabi Affair," by Juan Cole, Informed Consent, http://www.juancole.com/2005/01/al-yawir-on-chalabi-affair-lbc-arab.html, 24 January 2005.

Remember earlier discussion on the mysterious legal threats against Ahmed Chalabi? It may have been just the Iraqi version of Howard Dean running his mouth

[Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawir] said that Hazem Shaalan is an Iraqi patriot, but has a tendency to express sharp opinions in public that do not represent those of the al-Iraqiyyun Party slate, nor even the interim Iraqi government. He pointed out that Prime Minister Iyad Allawi had distanced his government from some of Shaalan's statements.

A possibly corrupt Iraqi version of Howard Dean, at that

Shaalan directed his threat against Chalabi after the latter revealed that Shaalan had sent $300 million in cash to a Beirut Bank. Shaalan says it was to buy tanks and other weapons for the Iraqi government. The United States is investigating the transfer of funds.

As goes democracy, so goes crazy politicians and corruption scandals. Good.

"Iraq’s interior minister says no arrest warrant for Chalabi," AFP, http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/focusoniraq/2005/January/focusoniraq_January178.xml§ion=focusoniraq, 22 January 2004.

Another explanation for the news is that if the UIA is the pro-Iran ticket, threatening a candidate wanted by Jordan would make the Iraqi List a pro-Arab ticket. But now...

Apparently, no arrest warrent will be issued for Dr. Chalabi. Did the minister just Howard-Dean out? Was there a plan, but ruled out by a higher up? Did Ambassador Negroponte point out how bizarre it is for a modern state to arrest someone for defaming a government official?

Who knows.

The Interim Iraqi government is undeniably brave. But a democratically elected one will be better.

"Iraq to arrest Ahmad Chalabi after Eid," Reuters, http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=658423, 22 January 2005.

Allegations of dirty tricks fly before the Iraqi elections

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iraq's interim defence minister says the government will arrest Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi after the Eid al-Adha holiday on suspicion of maligning the defence ministry.

"We will arrest him and hand him over to Interpol. We will arrest him based on facts that he wanted to malign the reputation of the defence ministry and defence minister," Hazim al-Shaalan told Al Jazeera television on Friday.

The satellite channel quoted Shaalan as saying Chalabi would be handed to Interpol over his conviction in absentia by a Jordanian court in 1992 of embezzling millions from Petra Bank, whose 1989 collapse shook Jordan's political and financial system.

...

Shaalan told London-based newspaper Asharq al-Awsat in remarks published on Friday he would order the arrest after Chalabi accused the defence minister in an interview of stealing $500 million from the ministry and posted documents on a Web site accusing Shaalan of links to Saddam Hussein's government.

This sounds very political. And stupid. And it might work.

Both Chalabi's speech and Shaalan's rants are examples of negative campaigning. Chalabi's anti-military-clique patriotism had led him first to oppose the Ba'athi government, and then to ally himself with Iranian forces. Chalabi's early purging of Ba'ath officials shows his true fears -- that a sufficient number of Ba'ath in the Iraqi army and bureucracy could launch a bloddy coup and reestablish the Sunni order as a fait accompli.

Note that I said a Sunni order, not necessarily a Ba'ath tyrannt. The INA (Iyad Alawi's party, part of The Iraqi List) is composed primarily of Ba'ath officers who eventually fell out with Sadaam Hussein. They are also patriots. They see Sunni predominance over Iraq as "natural" and blame Saddam for being paranoid and stupid.

The Iraqi List and the INA has to prevent a Untied Iraqi Alliance landslide. If the UIA, the "Shia" party in Iraq, winds a landslide the Sunnis may be shut out for ever. Suppose that the UIA gains only two-thirds of the Shia vote, or 40% of the total possible vote. Presuming that all Kurds vote for the Kurdistan Alliance, a coalition of the UIA and KU would have 60% of the seats. But for the Iraqi List it gets worse, because Sunni turnout will be depressed by boycott moves. If half of the Sunnis boycott a UIA-KU alliance that gains 60% of the possible vote gains 66.7% of the seats.

A UIA-KU alliance is quite likely. In its own sphere, each could take extreme positions and rely on the other for support. KU could demand autonomy, Kirkuk, and revenue from Kurdish oil, UIA could demand a military alliance with Iran and some form of Sharia in the Arab lands, and each would vote for the ohter. In the scenario above, this could be accomplished in spite of any Iraqi List efforts, and in spite of a Sunni opposition.

Hence, the dirty trick. The Iraqi List is trying to paint the United Iraqi Alliance as "the foreign candidates." Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's Iranian birth and accent are talked about, as it the very Iranian Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (part of the UIA). By publicly descring Chalabi as a Jordanian, and worse a Jordanian thief, the Iraqi list is trying to drive this point home.

I don't like dirty tricks. But I'm happy Iraqis are fighting with words, not bullets. The Iraqi elections are monumental in Iraqi history, and they are the way to resolve this dispute.

The New York Times reports on the United Iraqi Alliance, a grand coalition that will certainly be the dominate voice in the new Iraq.

It includes The Dawa Party, The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, The Mahdi Army (remember when they staged their "uprising"), and The Iraqi National Congress (whose leader, Ahmad Chalabi, is the uncle of the first procsecutor against Saddam for war crimes). For good measure the United Iraqis have some token candidates from minority groups as well.

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec. 8 - Iraq's leading Shiite political groups agreed Wednesday to unite under a single banner, a move that could help them win a dominant share of votes in the coming national elections.

The agreement came as several Sunni parties, including one that led a broad movement to delay the elections for six months, registered to field candidates.

...

Shiite Arabs, representing 60 percent of Iraq's population, have long been dominated by the Sunni minority, and they see the elections as a chance to turn their majority status into political power for the first time.

The new coalition, called the United Iraqi Alliance, brings together many of Iraq's best-known political figures, including the renegade cleric Moktada al-Sadr and Ahmad Chalabi, the former exile once championed by the Bush administration. It is composed mostly of Shiite parties, but also includes Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmens and tribal leaders from across Iraq, in what the organizers hope will be seen as a diverse ticket with broad national appeal.

Relatedly,

News of the agreement came as fighting continued in at least two cities. In Mosul, far to the north, one commando with the Iraqi Interior Ministry was killed and six were wounded in a gun battle that broke out when insurgents attacked a convoy, officials said.

If they wish to reimpose apartheid, the Sunni terrorists need to stop this. The people of Iraq are united for freedom. The Sunni terrorists are on the wrong side of history.