Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Dreaming 5GW, Part VI: Dream of 5GW
Indwelt Kadath (from okoun.cz)
"We'll run away, keep everything simple
Night will come down, our guardian angel
We rush ahead, the crossroads are empty
Our spirits rise, they're not gonna get us
They don't understand,
They don't understand us"
Not Going to Get Us, Tatu
This brings me back to my original question: what would a 5GW look like? Once I understood the organization, developmental, doctrinal, and other aspects of 5th Generation War, picturing one in operation was trivial.
The Border War
A small, close-knight, highly-able team of Nativists wishes to militarize the Southwest border of the United States against Mexican migrants. Unable to handle the "content flow" of Latin culture and people, the Nativists believe they have exhausted attempts at political satisfaction. Therefore, they try politics by other means: war. Their aim is limited: the subversion of the government of the United States of America into closing the Southern border. (The aim of the Persian Gulf War coalition was similar: subvert the government of Iraq into closing the Iraq-Kuwait border against military and governmental Iraqi content flow.)
Logical View of Nativist-USG Struggle
The nativists seek an economy of force. They realize they are weak -- perhaps only a few dozen highly-able members. They also realize it would be trivial for the FBI or even local police to round them up if their "treason" was discovered. Therefore they look to see what other forces they can leverage.
A big possibility stands out: the Global War on Terrorism. The USG is at war with al Qaeda, with Arab Muslims supporting both entities to different extents in different ways.
The Found Environment: The Global War on Terrorism
Which of course means:
The two conflicts, seen together
The Nativists now create two shadow organizations: Islamophiles and Islamaphobes. These are more than false-flag organizations, because the shadow organizations will honestly strive to achieve their stated goals. However, the success of the shadow organizations is irrelevant to the success of the Nativists. Both the Islamophiles and Islamophobes publicly support the United States Government, and assist the USG in some ways. However, the leadership of both shadow-groups is part of the Nativist network.
First Step of Implementation: Shadow Networks Created
Next, the shadow networks begin engaging in paramilitary operations. However, neither shadow network directly attacks the U.S. Government, and both continue supporting the Government as they are able. The purpose of the Islamophobes is to provoke and antagonize the Arab Muslim population. Publicly, the Islamophobes agitate for the removal or internment of the Arab Muslim population. On a street level, the Phobes align with anti-Arab-Muslim street gangs, escalating to political assassination of Arab-Muslims moderates and "outrage" attacks (bombing of deserted mosques, etc). The purpose is to disrupt peaceful Arab Muslim networks.
Simultaneously, the Islamophiles work to defend the civil rights of Arab Muslims, paying especial communication to maintaining liberal communication networks between American and international Arab Muslims. The Philes will work to create Arab-Muslim "self defense" networks, which will have the natural consequence of increasing the militancy of the Arab Muslim population. Most critically, the Philes will strive to make physical communication with the Arab world as easy as possible ("charity" smuggling networks, with a complementary political effort). The purpose is to prevent disruption of internationally-originating terrorist attacks.
The Philes and Phobes will engage in "phony" attacks on each other, as well.
The Frictional Sea of Conflict
Then, bam, a spectacular terrorist attack.
The details of the attack, and the particulars of its effects, don't concern us. Nor does the fate of the American Arab population (interned? expelled? integrated?). But a natural consequence of such an attack will be an increase in border security. There already is strong agitation among working-class whites for "border crackdown." For now, the cries are to weak to move a Government committed to North American integration.
But a few more 9/11s would change Washington's mind.
And all of the 9/11s would happen without the Government understanding their was a thinking force supporting the attacks that had no concern whatsoever for bin Ladenism
So a natural consequence of the US Government's escalating war against al Qaeda will be much tighter control of immigration and the Mexican border, including either National Guardsmen or Soldiers on watch. The 5th Generation Warriors have won.
The militant Nativist network is now abandoned as obsolete: the government has been subverted. The shadow networks are abandoned, allowed to run their course as passions dictate. The war against al Qaeda goes on, but it would have continued away.
What Victory Looks Like
For the price of a few thousand lives, the 5th Generation Warriors have won without their enemy -- the American Government -- ever realizing that it was in a war against them.
There are even purer forms of 5GW. But such is a post for another time...
Dreaming 5GW, a tdaxp series
1. The Dream-Quest of Unknown 5GW
2. The Uncaring War
3. Lessons from Software Development
4. 5th Generation Networks
5. A Boydian Approach to 5GW
6. A Dream of 5GW
I have always like this section of your original post. What strikes me as I re-read it is the similarity to a prototype/theorectical 5GW campaign that I recently imagined (posted over at the forum if you are interested). My 5GW however was almost from the opposite direction with Quedists formenting discord between immigrants and anti-immigrant groups. My campaign was a bit more ambitious in its goal but the result, with a few slight changes in the plan, could very well be exactly the same as your campaign outlined here.
More than anything I think this shows how 5GW is 'secretwar' and strikes at the observe portion of the OODA. You can observe surface events that are almost identical but those responsible are completely different and desire completely different goals. This is why the classic question of "Cui Bono" becomes so murky with 5GW.
Posted by: Arherring | Wednesday, August 01, 2007
"Cui bono" is most useful when only a few capable actors exist. When their are many actors, though, suddenly there are many possible suspects, whether the good they are seeking is land, power, cash, or ideology. Add to that the notion of the "radical center" (extremists on both sides agreeing on middle-term objectives) and it becomes very hard to see indeed.
Very good comment.
Posted by: Dan tdaxp | Wednesday, August 01, 2007
But the goal of these "nativists" is not to toughen border security. That is a means towards their goal - preservation of a specific strand of American culture and their own way of life. The hypothetical means of facilitating another terrorist attack in the US to tighten border security would work against their actual goal of preserving their way of life. So why would they do it? These 5GWarriors sound like very short-sighted nativists.... well then again perhaps this scenario is plausible, as nativists are short-sighted almost by definition!
Posted by: Adrian | Wednesday, August 01, 2007