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Sunday, December 24, 20061166987700

The Wary Guerrilla, Part VI: Absolute Guerrilla

The absolutism questionnaire used is an extension of Alford & Hibbing’s (2006b) scale for measuring absolutism in political orientation. Running a basic test of correlations on answers immediately highlighted two items on the political absolutism scale. It should be noted that for technical reasons, data here is only available for self-reported Republicans and Democrats. Ten classic wary cooperators identified as independents and were not asked to answer the political orientation section of the survey.


Wary Guerrillas?


The variable asking participants whether they feel society works best when it speaks with one voice or many voices (HOneVce) was a highly significantly correlated variable. The variable has an R2 of .377. Additionally, the variable HEtCode, asked participants whether they feel society works best when behavioral expectations are based on an eternal code or when behavioral expectations are allowed to evolve over the decades. This variable was significant at the .05 level.


After finding a correlation with Absolutist Orientation, which was calculated through answers to general questions, the analysis then determined whether answers to specific political questions were also correlated. An Authoritarian Politics scale, taking the “conservative” position on a variety of political issues, (Calculated as HPolitC = hdeathp - habortd + hpray + hiraqwa - hgaymar - hforaid + hdepill - htaxric + hwireta - hgunctr) was created. (See Appendix B for variable operationization). The null hypothesis is rejected, concluding that Authoritarian Politics do significantly impact Wary Guerrillaism with an R2 of .171.

Hypothesis 7: The Wary Guerrilla Type is correlated with Absolutist Beliefs.

The same test was conducted for specific questions relating to views on gay marriage (HGayMar) and belief in progressive taxation (HTaxRic). These variables produced R2 values of .188 and .132, respectively.



In order to further the research, political orientation or affiliation was tested to see if it predicted the emergence of Wary Guerrillaism. The null hypothesis, The Wary Guerrilla Type is not correlated with Political Party, was tested in spite of warnings that party affiliation may not translate into gameplay. The results led to rejection of the null hypothesis; indeed more “Republican” players were more likely to be Wary Guerrillas. With the exception of a single self-identified Democrat, every Wary Guerrilla was a self-identified Republican (None of the ten Independent Wary Cooperators were Wary Guerrillas, 1 of the 11 Democratic Wary Cooperators were Wary Guerrillas, and 6 of the 19 Republican Wary Cooperators were Wary Guerillas.)

Hypothesis 8: The Wary Guerrilla Type is correlated with Political Party.



The model inclusive of the prime orientation and issue related variables, (ie ‘one voice: HOneVce’, ‘eternal code:HEtCode’, ‘gay marriage:HGayMar’, progressive taxes:HTaxRic’, and ‘Republican:HRpDmin’), produced an adjusted R2 value of 0.447 (p=0.002). A model including variables measuring three personality traits, (ie Hardworking:HHardWo, Carefulness:HCarefu, and Kindness:HUnkind) generated an adjusted R2 value of 0.425 (p=0.000). A model merging the key political orientation, issue stance, and personality variables yielded an adjusted R2 value of 0.745 (p=0.000).




The Wary Guerrilla, a tdaxp series
1. Abstract
2. Terrorism
3. Predictions
4. An Experiment
5. Results
6. Absolute Guerrilla
7. Those Who Cause Less Pain
8. Future Research
9. Political Implications
10. Bibliography

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