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Monday, July 31, 20061154395014

Hezbollah v. the Lebanese Nation, Hezbollah v. the United Nations

Hezbollah v. the Lebanese Nation, Hezbollah v. the United Nations

In a recent post, Mark described the violence Hezbollah intentionally inflicts on the Lebanese people

As Hezbollah is a semi-4GW organization, it obeys no recognized rules of warfare yet escapes much in the way of blame, and intentionally seeks maximum civilian casualties among Lebanese Shiites from Israeli retaliation, there are certain political realities that cannot be ignored:


Yet the common people of Lebanon are not the only victim's of rejectionist violence in Lebanon's Civil War. The Party of God is also targeting United Nations missions:


Sites of Terrorist Attacks


The geographically-aware Catholicgauze has blogged on the War in Lebanon before.

Comments

Dan,

What is your assessment of Israel's resolve to destroy H'b at of 8/2? Clearly maximizing damage to Shiites is the way to maximize destabilization in Lebanon (can't find the reference, but Lebanese leadership realized in the 60's that they needed to integrate the Shiites in order to create peace across the entire country), and H'b is working that angle with everything they've got.

I think the Baalbek raid was a thrown gaunlet, but I can't conceptualize what an appropriate H'b response would be. 300 rockets just says "more of the same", not "you can't do that and here's why". Is it my wishful thinking or has the IDF just shown that H'b is their bitch because H'b has no new response? Sorry for the language, but I'm doing this streamofconsciousnessstyle.

Posted by: Mike | Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Mike,

Good question on Lebanon's stability on the Shia.

The Shia have to be integrated into the political economy of Lebanon, but this doesn't necessarily mean "integration" as Americans understand the turn. Right now the Shia have their own "segregated" militia (Hezbollah) and segregated public services (also run by Hezbollah). These are not quick problems, but then again Israel has patience. [1]

(And perhaps they don't all need to be solved. America's Civil War ended with the disbanding of the Ku Klux Klan under the Grant Administration, but the Southern states maintain their ability to provide social services to this day. There may be no need to make the government's victory any greater to end Lebanon's Civil War [2])

I think your military analysis is correct. By attacking Beirut's suburbs and the north of the country Israel is demonstrating its abilities. But once the world gets used to a hundred rockets in a day -- another hundred isn't impressive. Israel is escalating the conflict while Hezbollah tries to act tough doing the same thing, over and over. (Presumably Hezbollah could attack Tel Aviv, or even Jerusalem, but one hears about 'dire consequences' for this, so it would be a gamble.)

When you ask, "has the IDF just shown that H'b is their bitch," I think you are asking if Israel has proven Hezbollah too slow to respond to IDF's superior maneuver. I think the answer is "yes."

[1] http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2006/08/07/israel-as-4gw-victory-machine.html
[2] http://tdaxp.blogspirit.com/archive/2006/07/18/israel-joins-lebanon-s-civil-war.html

Posted by: Dan tdaxp | Monday, August 07, 2006

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