Thursday, June 22, 2006
Chapter VI. Conclusions
Note: This is an excerpt from a draft of my thesis, A Computer Model of National Behavior. The introduction and table of contents are also available
Full test results are available in Appendix C and Appendix D. A brief summary of the results is given.
The first objective test measured the displacement of nations. It was completely successful. Every nation evaluated was within the limits determined in the thesis proposal. Additionally, all but one matched real-world results for the 1960s perfectly.
The second objective test measured state displacement. It was less successful, as state displacement was greater than expected. Every nation except one failed the state displacement test. Additionally, these failures occurred within only a few years. The full cause and implications of this are described within Appendix D.
Internal validity with respect to density and health was also tracked. The health test was more successful, with an average standard deviation of .08. The density test was somewhat less accurate, with an average standard deviation of .12. Both of these tests are considered successes. A more complete discussion of the internal validity tests is found in Appendix D.
The two subjective tests asked expert reviewers to view traces and animations of nations. Three expert reviewers were involved, each had a recognized doctorate in a specialty relating to the nature of this simulation. One was in political science, one in psychology, and one in social anthropology. After the presentation of the trace and animation (available in Appendix C) the social anthropologist indicated that he did not believe he was equipped to properly judge the results. However, both the political scientist and the psychologist believed almost all delineated issues were reasonable. For more information on the subjective tests, see Appendix C.
Overall the objective and subjective tests support the proposition that the simulation model accurately reflects reality. Every expert who gave an analysis was positive in his comments. Additionally, the central objective tests, whether this simulation of nations accurately simulates nations, were completely successful. The general failure of the secondary objective test is distressing. However, the cause of this aberrant behavior has been isolated.
Computer Science Thesis Index
Where can I find the Appendix C and Appendix D? The summary of your thesis made me want to read it. How long did it take you to write it and how did you make sure that the simulation model accurately reflected reality?
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