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Friday, July 22, 20051122054300
Emerging NetWar / SecretWar Tactic: Stealth Shareholder Activism
SecretWar, or 5th Generation War, relies on leveraging power while minimizing visibility. A successful 5GW operation would be able to subdue or subvert a government without being noticed. Therefore it is appropriate that Stratfor, started by the author of America's Secret War, outlines a way for SecretWarriors to subvert corporate America: shareholder activism.
Since the 1970s, social and environmental activists have used proxy voting and public companies' annual shareholder meetings as a platform to push for new public policies. The early shareholder activist and "socially responsible" investment movements achieved their most significant victory in the 1980s, when heavy pressure forced major U.S. and European multinationals to withdraw from South Africa and contributed significantly to the end of the apartheid regime. By the end of the apartheid era, few major multinationals dared do business in South Africa lest they be seen as endorsing its racist political, social and economic structure.
Shareholder activism does not depend on gaining the support of the majority of a company's shareholders in order to be effective -- proxy votes are nonbinding. Instead, it changes corporate policy when management sees that a strong minority of shareholders (usually 20 percent will do) find the company's policies troublesome. Senior executives begin to fear that significant amounts of management's time, energy and attention will be diverted to addressing the issue. To reach that threshold of effectiveness, activists try to recruit the support of as many large shareholders as possible -- beginning with small social-oriented firms such as Calvert, then progressing to socially-oriented pension funds such as CalPERS (and potentially TIAA-CREF, if the demonstrators get their way). Still, most successful campaigns need significant rank-and-file shareholder support and that of at least one major mainstream investor.
- Major Benefit of Shareholder Activism for 5GW: SecretWarrior can affect change through publicly inoccuous front organizations
- Major Detriment of Shareholder Activism for 5GW: Relies on visibility of front groups to be effective, requires "hearts and minds"
Of course, shareholder activism can also be used in netwars, or 4th Generation Wars. Indeed, shareholder activism may help 4GWarriors more than 5GWarriors. But such is a post for another time...
12:45 Posted by Dan tdaxp in Doctrine | Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this | Tags: 5gw
Comments
Fascinating, but one can do far more damage through currency speculation. Consider the pied piper effect in currency speculation, where George Soros has been on the top for a long time. He’s long been a trendsetter, rivaling Warren Buffet in influence. Now, voters are slaves to the economic reality, correct? If jobs fade away, they blame the Prime Minster or President, correct? So, how would a man like Soros drive job figures down, if he wanted to remove, say, P.M. John Major and the Tory party from government? Naturally, he’d use his influence in speculation against the British Pound.
Well, he did this, Britons paid more for goods, and the people voted out all traces of British conservatism. It seems America’s 1992 recession was linked to England’s, meaning Soros (if you assume my logic) bloodlessly caused two regime changes in one stroke. Soros also seemingly invoked this strategy against his top hedge fund rivals in 1998, when he wrecked their top investment, Russia, by trading off the Ruble. The Malaysian PM accused Soros of attacking the Malay currency in 1997.
If you look deeply enough, you can see a run against the American dollar lasting nearly the entire term of George W. Bush. Pundits blamed China, but researchers (to name one think tank, the Ludwig von Mises institute) have proven that country actually pitched in to save the dollar.
Presumably, this run at the dollar failed to oust Bush because Soros couldn’t use his influence in speculation to set a trend against it. Laundered accounts don’t carry a reputation. Also, severe tax cuts and adept handling by the Federal Reserve moved the money supply in directions Soros couldn’t counter.
Posted by: Typewriter King | Wednesday, July 27, 2005