Friday, April 15, 2005
Anti-Iraqis Backsliding Into 4GWS1
The three stages of modern fourth generation warfare are
- Destabilize the enemy while building up a fighting force. Assassinations, bombings, and the like.
- Attempt to control areas where the enemy is weak while building up a fighting force. However, do not fight regular battles.
- Use your fighting force to conquer the enemy in regular battles.
Given that, what to make of Juan Cole's latest entry
The Financial Times reports that guerrilla actions, including bombings and ambushes, left at least 24 persons dead on Thursday in Iraq. There were bombs in Baghdad, as well as shootings and assassinations elsewhere. Police were killed near Kirkuk and a bomb exploded in Basra, hurting two civilian passersby (the target was a police vehicle)
One official took comfort from the evidence that the suicide bombings in Baghdad mainly killed motorists and street sweepers, rather than more strategic personnel, leading to the conclusion that today's suicide bombers are not as well-trained.
The aim of the bombers is to destabilize society by making everyone feel insecure. My Iraqi contacts say you still hear bombings and machine gun fire all night in Baghdad. Those bombs on Thursday added to the atmosphere of insecurity, making it less likely that the new Iraq can pull itself together. You don't need a lot of training for that.
Well, the real aim of the bombers is to take over the country. Cole misses the point.
When insurgents attack American soldiers or fixed instillations, they are contesting territory. That is 4GWS2, the second state of a fourth generation war. Killing civilians (while growing a base) is the first stage, 4GWS1. Going from contesting territory to terrorizing civilians is backwards -- it means the insurgents are losing.
Every death is a tragedy, and it is possible for an insurgent force to regroup and eventually win. But desperate and catastrophic attacks against well fortified positions combined with abandoning most 4GW22 attacks is good news for the good guys. Too bad Cole doesn't see that.
Update: Over at Liberals Against Terrorism, Swopa takes the analysis deeper
The reason that "the ranks of the insurgency are increasingly dominated by poorly trained ideologues" is because the Baathist element of the resistance is decreasing.
That may be due to the elimination of its leadership (which I presume is at least partially true), but it may also be because they've chosen to lie low for awhile.