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Thursday, February 10, 20051108050300

Shrinking Russia, Growing Europe

"Tilting Westward," The Economist, http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3599661, 27 January 2005.

"EU plans special envoy to help end Moldova strife," by Sebastian Alison, Reuters, http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/B686612.htm, 8 February 2005.

"Moldova Ends Iraq Mission," Baku Today, http://www.bakutoday.net/view.php?d=12349, 10 February 2005.

Putin's incompetence sends another piece of the old Empire hurtling towards Brussels

When Victor Yushchenko won the Ukrainian presidency, many Russians declared that Russia had “lost” Ukraine thanks to western meddling. Yet in Moldova, Russia is proving quite capable of losing an ally without western help. Four years ago, Moldova's Communist Party won election by promising pro-Russian policies, including eventual union with Russia and Belarus. Now they are chasing re-election in March by promising pro-western policies, including integration with the European Union. They changed course because even they could not stomach Russia's strategy of keeping Moldova divided and weak.


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If there was any hope for pro-Russia factions before the governments about-face, Romanian-Ukrainian joint action would torpedo it

A better and more open government in Moldova will deserve a lot more international help, starting with the neighbours. Romania is already offering diplomatic support. Ukraine could offer vital practical help. Transdniestria's smugglers and arms salesmen—the backbone of the economy, along with a big Ukrainian-owned steelworks—trade through Ukraine, especially via Odessa. The Ukrainian government could cripple Transdniestria by policing the common border tightly. But that would upset Ukrainians.


The now anti-Russian Communist Party decides on an election stunt: withdrawing all twelve soldiers from Iraq.

A group of 12 Moldovan minesweepers returned from Iraq Thursday, ending a six-month deployment in the US-led coalition forces, defense officials said here.

...

Moldova is in full swing of an election campaign ahead of parliamentary polls early next month and therefore the question of sending more troops to Iraq cannot be raised at the present time, the ministry said.


Europe worries about another "Kaliningrad," named after the Russian Baltic State spiraling into misery. Kaliningrad is surrounded by the EU already, and talk of geographical determinism certainly doesn't hurt Europe's case.

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If Moldova is to achieve deep and irreversible change, however, the EU must offer it a clear path towards eventual membership. It has done this for the Balkan countries, which are no more European and no less troubled than Moldova. Its reluctance to talk of membership for Ukraine looks short-sighted: when Ukraine joins the queue, geography will dictate giving a place to Moldova too. The sooner the process is started, the less the danger of either country wobbling off-course.

This assumes that the Transdniestrian problem will, in effect, solve itself, as the future benefits of EU integration outweigh those of separatism. But Russia will be a big obstacle. At worst, it might even step up its military presence in Transdniestria, to make a second Kaliningrad: a Russian fortress in south-east Europe. The best counter-strategy would be to confront the Russians openly over what they are protecting in Transdniestria: a big, ugly smuggling racket, with a piece of land attached. Even Russia may not want to spend too much political capital in such a cause.


To head it off, the EU prepares for peaceful annexation

The European Union plans to appoint a special envoy to Moldova to help end a frozen conflict in the breakaway Dnestr region as EU interest in the tiny ex-Soviet state picks up, diplomats said on Tuesday.

The move signals Brussels' desire to bring about an end to the disputed Russian military presence in Europe's poorest country before Moldova's neighbour Romania joins the EU in 2007.

"There is no doubt that there is an increase in interest and attention in Moldova," Cristina Gallach, spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, told Reuters. "The role of the European Union can only be useful."


More and better connectivity with Brussels than Moscow. The EU is useful as a force for Russian dissolution.

09:45 Posted by Dan tdaxp in Connectivity , Europe | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this | Tags: russia, ukraine

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